Iran’s Options to Respond to the West

After adopting the new UN Security Council resolution 1929 against Iran, the EU and some other US allies such as Australia has been discussing on the new round of sanction against Iran in addition to the UNSC ones. It seems that there is some kind of monolithic actions in this regard against Iran in the West front but on the other side of the game which is Iran we have not witnessed any particular measure in spite of long rhetoric to respond to the sanctions.
In this article I’m trying to briefly clarify the Iranian options to respond to these actions. Iran can take into consideration five strategies to respond to the current situation.
First, acceptance of UNSC resolutions on Iran’s nuclear issue. This policy means that Iran halts its nuclear program and uranium enrichment and cooperates fully with the IAEA and approves the additional protocol in its parliaments. This may reduces the pressures on Iran and stop some of sanctions. On the other hand this policy certainly damages the Iranian prestige among Non- Allied Movement and Islamic nations. Internally the Iranian people would lose their confidence on the government and criticize it for withdrawal from their absolute right of using atomic energy. This also means that the Iranian government wasted its energy, resources, etc for near 8 year, for nothing.
Second policy is relative cooperation. According to this policy Iran accepts some part of resolutions in order to make confidence and show its good intention. For example Iran can suspend uranium enrichment for certain period of time and enforce the additional protocol voluntarily. This may result in more negotiations and reduce some sanctions. The aim of this policy is to ensure the international community about the good will of Iranian party. The course of history proved that this policy because of profound distrust between two parties would not operationalize.
Third policy is to continue the current situation which I mean by that resuming the Iranian nuclear issue in spite of the new sanctions and do nothing in particular in response to the sanction. This policy would complicate the situation. The continuation of the current situation may increase the sanction and put more pressure on Iran and in the worst case may bolster the idea of attacking Iran. So this situation is not desirable for Iran.
Fourth policy is to reduce the level of cooperation with the IAEA and the hostile states. Preventing IAEA inspectors to come to the country and restricting their access to some sites perhaps are some options in this regards. This may be a quick response to the new sanctions and has some domestic consumption. But on the other side it may increase the sanction on Iran and disappoints some Iranian allies in the world and proves the arguments of the west about Iranian non-compliance nature.
The fifth policy is a confrontation strategy which can be divided into two main categories: low-intensified conflict as a result of enforcement of the resolution 1929 to inspect Iranian ships and cargos and Iran’s retaliation in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. Limited conflicts in this regard would be occurred. Another category is high-intensified conflict as result of Iran’s change policy to exit from the NPT and trying to make bomb. This policy has the deterrence function for Iran but on the other hand can pave the way for the west to resort to article 42 of UN charter and attack Iran in a way that they did against Iraq in 2003.
I believe that Iran must assess the west strategy and intention of the current measures. They may have four purposes from their actions:
1. Increasing the pressures and sanctions to change the behavior of Iranian government through threat.
2. Continuing the current situation which is bargaining and trying to adopt new resolution.
3. Increasing the sanctions and limited confrontation with Iran in different areas.
4. Increasing the pressure and sanctions to change the Iranian regime.
This is exactly the fact that should be clarified. I think current situation should be changed by Iranian government. If we come to this conclusion that the west cannot tolerate the Iranian regime and this is the beginning of trend to topple Iranian government in Iraq-like manner then Iran should keep every option on the table even achieving to atomic bomb.
For now Iran should apply a combination of all aforementioned policies which it means trying to back the 5+3 to negotiation table and also some confidence building measures and at the same time reduce its cooperation with IAEA and warn the west that Iran can move beyond if they continue their hostile actions. In this regard the fifth way- exiting NPT and making bomb- should not be off the table. The West problem is the nature of Islamic Revolution and all of these actions are excuses to curb Iran. Solving the nuclear issue, this country cannot be sure that another issue would be presented.
To sum up, I extremely emphasis on solving the Iranian nuclear issue through political methods and cooperation with the international community but if the rival powers try to exhaust the country through counterproductive measures, Iran should take into account all possible options to deter the west from interfering and defend itself from probable attacks even by nukes.

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